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November outlook for 2017-18 Annual Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2017-18 Annual Pools today. Compared to the mid-November PRO release, projected returns for wheat are $8 per tonne lower, while durum projected returns are $6 per tonne higher.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Annual Pool
Wheat 27-Nov 9-Nov
1 CWRS 14.5 296.00 304.00
1 CWRS 14.0 285.00 293.00
1 CWRS 13.5 276.00 284.00
1 CWRS 13.0 265.00 273.00
1 CWRS 12.5 250.00 258.00
1 CWRS 12.0 233.00 241.00
1 CWRS 11.5 217.00 225.00
2 CWRS 14.5 294.00 302.00
2 CWRS 14.0 283.00 291.00
2 CWRS 13.5 274.00 282.00
2 CWRS 13.0 263.00 271.00
2 CWRS 12.5 248.00 256.00
2 CWRS 12.0 232.00 240.00
2 CWRS 11.5 215.00 223.00
3 CWRS 13.0 259.00 267.00
3 CWRS 12.5 245.00 253.00
3 CWRS 12.0 230.00 238.00
3 CWRS 11.5 215.00 223.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 315.00 309.00
1 CWAD 12.5 314.00 308.00
1 CWAD 11.5 312.00 306.00
1 CWAD 310.00 304.00
2 CWAD 13.0 305.00 299.00
2 CWAD 12.5 304.00 298.00
2 CWAD 11.5 302.00 296.00
2 CWAD 300.00 294.00
3 CWAD 13.0 286.00 280.00
3 CWAD 11.5 281.00 275.00
3 CWAD 277.00 271.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3's pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2017-18 pools
PROs for the 2017-18 Annual Pools are based on the latest market information.  The decrease in the wheat PRO values from the mid-November PRO are a result of weaker futures. Recently, the Minneapolis March and July 2018 wheat futures contracts have been trading in the US$6.25 to US$6.30 per bushel range. A stronger export basis and weaker Canadian dollar have offset the drop in futures somewhat. The durum PRO values have increased as a result of the weaker Canadian dollar and adjustment to projected sales values.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 78.5 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat.
November 27, 2017