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Mid-November outlook for 2017-18 Annual Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2017-18 Annual Pools today. Compared to the October PRO release, projected returns for wheat range from $14 per tonne higher to $29 per tonne lower given adjustment to grade and protein spreads to reflect the market. Durum projected returns are $7 per tonne lower given the weaker Canadian dollar and slightly softer market prices.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Annual Pool
Wheat 9-Nov 26-Oct
1 CWRS 14.5 304.00 290.00
1 CWRS 14.0 293.00 286.00
1 CWRS 13.5 284.00 282.00
1 CWRS 13.0 273.00 275.00
1 CWRS 12.5 258.00 268.00
1 CWRS 12.0 241.00 261.00
1 CWRS 11.5 225.00 254.00
2 CWRS 14.5 302.00 289.00
2 CWRS 14.0 291.00 284.00
2 CWRS 13.5 282.00 280.00
2 CWRS 13.0 271.00 273.00
2 CWRS 12.5 256.00 266.00
2 CWRS 12.0 240.00 259.00
2 CWRS 11.5 223.00 252.00
3 CWRS 13.0 267.00 269.00
3 CWRS 12.5 253.00 262.00
3 CWRS 12.0 238.00 255.00
3 CWRS 11.5 223.00 248.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 309.00 316.00
1 CWAD 12.5 308.00 315.00
1 CWAD 11.5 306.00 313.00
1 CWAD 304.00 311.00
2 CWAD 13.0 299.00 306.00
2 CWAD 12.5 298.00 305.00
2 CWAD 11.5 296.00 303.00
2 CWAD 294.00 301.00
3 CWAD 13.0 280.00 287.00
3 CWAD 11.5 275.00 282.00
3 CWAD 271.00 278.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3's pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2017-18 pools
PROs for the 2017-18 Annual Pools are based on the latest market information.  The change in the wheat PRO values from the last PRO are a results of the adjustments to the grade and protein spreads to reflect the current market. Overall, Minneapolis wheat futures are higher but the stronger Canadian dollar and change in grade and protein spreads are offsetting most of the gains. The durum PRO values are down given the stronger Canadian dollar and softening of export prices.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 79 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat.
November 9, 2017