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October outlook for 2017-18 Annual Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2017-18 Annual Pools today. Compared to the mid-October PRO release, projected returns for wheat and canola are $10 and $14 per tonne higher, respectively, while durum returns are $16 per tonne lower.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Annual Pool
Wheat 26-Oct 12-Oct
1 CWRS 14.5 290.00 280.00
1 CWRS 14.0 286.00 276.00
1 CWRS 13.5 282.00 272.00
1 CWRS 13.0 275.00 265.00
1 CWRS 12.5 268.00 258.00
1 CWRS 12.0 261.00 251.00
1 CWRS 11.5 254.00 244.00
2 CWRS 14.5 289.00 279.00
2 CWRS 14.0 284.00 274.00
2 CWRS 13.5 280.00 270.00
2 CWRS 13.0 273.00 263.00
2 CWRS 12.5 266.00 256.00
2 CWRS 12.0 259.00 249.00
2 CWRS 11.5 252.00 242.00
3 CWRS 13.0 269.00 259.00
3 CWRS 12.5 262.00 252.00
3 CWRS 12.0 255.00 245.00
3 CWRS 11.5 248.00 238.00


Durum

1 CWAD 13.0 316.00 332.00
1 CWAD 12.5 315.00 331.00
1 CWAD 11.5 313.00 329.00
1 CWAD 311.00 327.00
2 CWAD 13.0 306.00 322.00
2 CWAD 12.5 305.00 321.00
2 CWAD 11.5 303.00 319.00
2 CWAD 301.00 317.00
3 CWAD 13.0 287.00 303.00
3 CWAD 11.5 282.00 298.00
3 CWAD 278.00 294.00


Canola

1 Canada 528.00 514.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3's pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2017-18 pools
PROs for the 2017-18 Annual Pools are based on the latest market information. The wheat PRO is higher given slightly stronger futures derived from short covering in the market and weaker Canadian dollar compared to the last PRO. Current Minneapolis wheat futures prices for the December 2017 contract through to the July 2018 contract are trading in the range of US$6.19 to US$6.40 per bushel. The durum PRO values are down given recent drop in export prices resulting from the lack of buyers willingness to pay. Offsetting the lower prices is the weaker Canadian dollar. For the canola PRO, values are higher compared to the last PRO on account of stronger canola futures. The increase in futures is a result of good export and crush demand, as well as the weaker Canadian dollar. Current ICE canola futures prices for the March 2018 contract through to the July 2018 contract are trading in the range of CA$522 to CA$526 per tonne.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 78 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
October 26, 2017