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Mid-September outlook for 2017-18 Annual Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2017-18 Annual Pools today. Compared to the August PRO release, projected returns are lower for wheat and canola, and mostly lower for durum.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Annual Pool
Wheat 15-Sep 24-Aug
1 CWRS 14.5 278.00 289.00
1 CWRS 14.0 274.00 286.00
1 CWRS 13.5 270.00 283.00
1 CWRS 13.0 263.00 280.00
1 CWRS 12.5 256.00 275.00
1 CWRS 12.0 247.00 270.00
1 CWRS 11.5 242.00 265.00
2 CWRS 14.5 276.00 286.00
2 CWRS 14.0 272.00 283.00
2 CWRS 13.5 268.00 280.00
2 CWRS 13.0 261.00 277.00
2 CWRS 12.5 254.00 272.00
2 CWRS 12.0 247.00 267.00
2 CWRS 11.5 240.00 262.00
3 CWRS 13.0 257.00 266.00
3 CWRS 12.5 250.00 261.00
3 CWRS 12.0 243.00 256.00
3 CWRS 11.5 236.00 251.00

 

Durum

1 CWAD 13.0 326.00 332.00
1 CWAD 12.5 325.00 330.00
1 CWAD 11.5 323.00 325.00
1 CWAD 321.00 320.00
2 CWAD 13.0 316.00 322.00
2 CWAD 12.5 315.00 320.00
2 CWAD 11.5 313.00 315.00
2 CWAD 311.00 310.00
3 CWAD 13.0 297.00 306.00
3 CWAD 11.5 291.00 302.00
3 CWAD 288.00 300.00

 

Canola

1 Canada 506.00 517.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2017-18 pools
PROs for the 2017-18 Annual Pools are based on the latest market information as the 2017 harvest is nearing completion across the Prairies. In terms of the wheat PRO, values are lower compared to the August release given the weaker futures and stronger Canadian dollar. Current Minneapolis wheat futures prices for the December 2017 contract through to the July 2018 contract are trading in the range of US$6.20 to US$6.40 per bushel. Durum PRO values are also mostly down compared to August as a result of softer export prices, as well as the stronger Canadian dollar. Also impacting both the wheat and durum PROs are the adjustments to the grade and protein spreads in order to reflect the current market and lower proteins in the U.S. crop. Lastly, PRO values for canola are down compare to the August PRO given the weaker futures. Current ICE canola futures prices for the March 2018 contract through to the July 2018 contract are trading in the range of CA$500 to CA$507 per tonne.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 82 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
September 15, 2017