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February outlook for 2016-17 Winter Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Winter pools, including Futures Choice. Compared to the January PRO, projected returns are unchanged for Wheat and Wheat Futures Choice pools. Projected durum returns are up $2 per tonne lower while canola is $5 per tonne lower.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Winter Pool
Wheat 23-Feb 26-Jan
1 CWRS 14.5 290.00 290.00
1 CWRS 14.0 285.00 285.00
1 CWRS 13.5 281.00 281.00
1 CWRS 13.0 277.00 277.00
1 CWRS 12.5 273.00 273.00
1 CWRS 12.0 269.00 269.00
1 CWRS 11.5 264.00 264.00
2 CWRS 14.5 287.00 287.00
2 CWRS 14.0 283.00 283.00
2 CWRS 13.5 278.00 278.00
2 CWRS 13.0 274.00 274.00
2 CWRS 12.5 270.00 270.00
2 CWRS 12.0 266.00 266.00
2 CWRS 11.5 261.00 261.00
3 CWRS 13.0 263.00 263.00
3 CWRS 12.5 260.00 260.00
3 CWRS 12.0 256.00 256.00
3 CWRS 11.5 253.00 253.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 330.00 328.00
1 CWAD 12.5 329.00 327.00
1 CWAD 11.5 327.00 325.00
1 CWAD 324.00 322.00
2 CWAD 13.0 318.00 314.00
2 CWAD 12.5 315.00 313.00
2 CWAD 11.5 313.00 311.00
2 CWAD 310.00 308.00
3 CWAD 13.0 288.00 286.00
3 CWAD 11.5 284.00 282.00
3 CWAD 282.00 280.00

Canola
1 Canada 533.00 538.00

Futures Choice

Winter Pool
23-Feb 26-Jan
Wheat Minneapolis July 2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 22.00 22.00
1 CWRS 14.0 18.00 18.00
1 CWRS 13.5 14.00 14.00
1 CWRS 13.0   9.00   9.00
1 CWRS 12.5   5.00   5.00
1 CWRS 12.0   1.00   1.00
1 CWRS 11.5  -3.00  -3.00
2 CWRS 14.5 19.00 19.00
2 CWRS 14.0 15.00 15.00
2 CWRS 13.5 11.00 11.00
2 CWRS 13.0   6.00   6.00
2 CWRS 12.5   2.00   2.00
2 CWRS 12.0  -2.00  -2.00
2 CWRS 11.5  -6.00  -6.00
3 CWRS 13.0  -5.00  -5.00
3 CWRS 12.5  -8.00  -8.00
3 CWRS 12.0             -12.00                -12.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -15.00 -15.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.


PRO commentary
2016-17 pools

Demand for wheat and durum remains on the slow side while canola demand has held steady at a strong pace, both for domestic crush and export. Since the last PRO, wheat futures rose, then fell back to slightly lower than a month ago. Canola futures are also below month-ago levels after trading both lower and higher. The Canadian dollar has traded sideways for the month.

Given current PRO projections, producers in the 2016-17 wheat Futures Choice Winter Pool would anticipate a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position made up of the July 2017 futures value they lock in plus $14 per tonne. 

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 76.2 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola futures markets.
February 23, 2017