FR
News

January outlook for 2016-17 Winter Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Winter pools, including Futures Choice. Compared to the December PRO, projected returns range from $5 to $7 per tonne lower for wheat. Durum returns are $28 to $32 per tonne lower while canola is $10 per tonne higher. Futures Choice Winter pool returns are projected $5 to $9 per tonne lower for wheat and up $1 per tonne for canola.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Winter Pool
Wheat 26-Jan 22-Dec
1 CWRS 14.5 290.00 297.00
1 CWRS 14.0 285.00 292.00
1 CWRS 13.5 281.00 288.00
1 CWRS 13.0 277.00 284.00
1 CWRS 12.5 273.00 279.00
1 CWRS 12.0 269.00 275.00
1 CWRS 11.5 264.00 270.00
2 CWRS 14.5 287.00 294.00
2 CWRS 14.0 283.00 289.00
2 CWRS 13.5 278.00 285.00
2 CWRS 13.0 274.00 281.00
2 CWRS 12.5 270.00 276.00
2 CWRS 12.0 266.00 272.00
2 CWRS 11.5 261.00 267.00
3 CWRS 13.0 263.00 269.00
3 CWRS 12.5 260.00 266.00
3 CWRS 12.0 256.00 262.00
3 CWRS 11.5 253.00 258.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 328.00 360.00
1 CWAD 12.5 327.00 359.00
1 CWAD 11.5 325.00 356.00
1 CWAD 322.00 353.00
2 CWAD 13.0 314.00 345.00
2 CWAD 12.5 313.00 344.00
2 CWAD 11.5 311.00 341.00
2 CWAD 308.00 338.00
3 CWAD 13.0 286.00 314.00
3 CWAD 11.5 282.00 311.00
3 CWAD 280.00 308.00

Canola
1 Canada 538.00 528.00

Futures Choice

Winter Pool
26-Jan 22-Dec
Wheat Minneapolis July 2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 22.00 29.00
1 CWRS 14.0 18.00 26.00
1 CWRS 13.5 14.00 22.00
1 CWRS 13.0   9.00 18.00
1 CWRS 12.5   5.00 13.00
1 CWRS 12.0   1.00   8.00
1 CWRS 11.5  -3.00   3.00
2 CWRS 14.5 19.00 26.00
2 CWRS 14.0 15.00 23.00
2 CWRS 13.5 11.00 19.00
2 CWRS 13.0   6.00 14.00
2 CWRS 12.5   2.00 10.00
2 CWRS 12.0  -2.00   7.00
2 CWRS 11.5  -6.00   0.00
3 CWRS 13.0  -5.00   3.00
3 CWRS 12.5  -8.00  -1.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -12.00  -6.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -15.00 -10.00

Canola

ICE July 2017 Basis
1 Canada 5.00 4.00


Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.


PRO commentary

2016-17 pools

With harvest underway in South America and winding down in Australia, production of grains and oilseeds in these regions is now being confirmed as very good and this is keeping a lid on export values in general. In currency markets, the US dollar has continued to build strength against most other currencies, with the Canadian dollar being an exception. This is putting significant downward pressure on Canadian returns.

Demand has been soft for wheat and durum over the last month while canola demand has held steady. Wheat futures moved significantly higher since the December PRO, but this was more than offset by a drop in export basis values during this period.  The Canadian dollar also strengthened more than two cents against the US dollar, further reducing pool returns.

Given current PRO projections, producers in the 2016-17 wheat Futures Choice Winter Pool would anticipate a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position made up of the July 2017 futures value they lock in plus $14 per tonne. 

For the canola Futures Choice Winter Pool, the projected return is the July 2017 futures locked in plus $5 per tonne at in-store position. 

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 76.3 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola futures markets.
January 26, 2017