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December outlook for 2016-17 Winter Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Winter Pools, including Futures Choice. Compared to the November PRO, projected returns range from down $1 to up $2 per tonne for wheat. Durum returns are $26 to $29 per tonne lower while canola is $12 per tonne lower. Futures Choice Winter pool returns are unchanged for wheat and down $2 per tonne for canola.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay

 

Winter Pool

Wheat 22-Dec 24-Nov
1 CWRS 14.5 297.00 298.00
1 CWRS 14.0 292.00 293.00
1 CWRS 13.5 288.00 288.00
1 CWRS 13.0 284.00 283.00
1 CWRS 12.5 279.00 279.00
1 CWRS 12.0 275.00 274.00
1 CWRS 11.5 270.00 269.00
2 CWRS 14.5 294.00 295.00
2 CWRS 14.0 289.00 290.00
2 CWRS 13.5 285.00 285.00
2 CWRS 13.0 281.00 280.00
2 CWRS 12.5 276.00 275.00
2 CWRS 12.0 272.00 270.00
2 CWRS 11.5 267.00 265.00
3 CWRS 13.0 269.00 268.00
3 CWRS 12.5 266.00 264.00
3 CWRS 12.0 262.00 260.00
3 CWRS 11.5 258.00 256.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 360.00 387.00
1 CWAD 12.5 359.00 385.00
1 CWAD 11.5 356.00 382.00
1 CWAD 353.00 379.00
2 CWAD 13.0 345.00 372.00
2 CWAD 12.5 344.00 371.00
2 CWAD 11.5 341.00 368.00
2 CWAD 338.00 365.00
3 CWAD 13.0 314.00 342.00
3 CWAD 11.5 311.00 338.00
3 CWAD 308.00 336.00

Canola
1 Canada 528.00 540.00

Futures Choice
Winter Pool
22-Dec 24-Nov
Wheat Minneapolis July 2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 29.00 29.00
1 CWRS 14.0 26.00 26.00
1 CWRS 13.5 22.00 22.00
1 CWRS 13.0 18.00 18.00
1 CWRS 12.5 13.00 13.00
1 CWRS 12.0   8.00   8.00
1 CWRS 11.5   3.00   3.00
2 CWRS 14.5 26.00 26.00
2 CWRS 14.0 23.00 23.00
2 CWRS 13.5 19.00 19.00
2 CWRS 13.0 14.00 14.00
2 CWRS 12.5 10.00 10.00
2 CWRS 12.0   7.00   7.00
2 CWRS 11.5   0.00   0.00
3 CWRS 13.0   3.00   3.00
3 CWRS 12.5  -1.00  -1.00
3 CWRS 12.0  -6.00  -6.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -10.00 -10.00

Canola
ICE July 2017 Basis
1 Canada 4.00 6.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2016-17 pools

Since the last PRO, wheat futures markets have traded sideways to slightly higher while canola futures and durum values have both retreated significantly since the November PRO.  The Canadian dollar had strengthened against the US dollar before doing a U-turn in mid-December to end up right back where it was for the November PRO.

Demand has been steady for wheat, durum and canola over the last month and is expected to continue steadily for the next several months.  At this time, crop development in South America is progressing very well and overall world grain and oilseed supplies are expected to remain abundant heading into the 2017 production season in the northern hemisphere.

Given current PRO projections, producers in the 2016-17 wheat Futures Choice Winter Pool would anticipate a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position made up of the July 2017 futures value they lock in plus $22 per tonne. 

For the canola Winter Futures Choice Pool, the projected return is the July 2017 futures locked in plus $22 per tonne at in-store position. 

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 74 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola futures markets.
December 22, 2016