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2016-17 Early Delivery PROs mixed in latest outlook

Winnipeg - G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery Pool and Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool. Compared to the last PRO released in February, projected returns for durum, field peas and wheat Futures Choice are $10, $5 and $2 per tonne lower, respectively, while soybeans are $7 per tonne higher. Projected returns for wheat and both the Futures Choice canola and soybean pools remain unchanged. 

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Early Delivery Pool
Wheat 24-Mar 25-Feb
1 CWRS 14.5 284.00 284.00
1 CWRS 14.0 281.00 281.00
1 CWRS 13.5 278.00 278.00
1 CWRS 13.0 275.00 275.00
1 CWRS 12.5 270.00 270.00
1 CWRS 12.0 265.00 265.00
1 CWRS 11.5 260.00 260.00
2 CWRS 14.5 281.00 281.00
2 CWRS 14.0 278.00 278.00
2 CWRS 13.5 275.00 275.00
2 CWRS 13.0 272.00 272.00
2 CWRS 12.5 267.00 267.00
2 CWRS 12.0 262.00 262.00
2 CWRS 11.5 257.00 257.00
3 CWRS 13.0 261.00 261.00
3 CWRS 12.5 256.00 256.00
3 CWRS 12.0 251.00 251.00
3 CWRS 11.5 246.00 246.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 300.00 310.00
1 CWAD 12.5 297.00 307.00
1 CWAD 11.5 292.00 302.00
1 CWAD 288.00 298.00
2 CWAD 13.0 290.00 300.00
2 CWAD 12.5 287.00 297.00
2 CWAD 11.5 282.00 292.00
2 CWAD 278.00 288.00
3 CWAD 13.0 274.00 284.00
3 CWAD 11.5 270.00 280.00
3 CWAD 268.00 278.00

Canola
1 Canada 500.00 500.00

Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 390.00 395.00

Soybeans
2 Canada Yellow 433.00 426.00

Futures Choice

Early Delivery Pool
24-Mar 25-Feb

Wheat
Minneapolis March
2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 14.00 16.00
1 CWRS 14.0 11.00 13.00
1 CWRS 13.5 8.00 10.00
1 CWRS 13.0 5.00 7.00
1 CWRS 12.5 0.00 2.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -5.00 -3.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -10.00 -8.00
2 CWRS 14.5 11.00 13.00
2 CWRS 14.0 8.00 10.00
2 CWRS 13.5 5.00 7.00
2 CWRS 13.0 2.00 4.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -3.00 -1.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -8.00 -6.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -13.00 -11.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -9.00 -7.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -14.00 -12.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -19.00 -17.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -24.00 -22.00

Canola
ICE March
2017 Basis
1 Canada 20.00 20.00

Soybeans
Chicago March
2017 Basis
2 Canada Yellow -20.00 -20.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3's pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2016-17 pools
PROs for 2016-17 are based on the best information available today, with the understanding that the 2016 production season remains ahead and will ultimately determine price direction and levels. Wheat PROs remain unchanged given that the changes to the futures and foreign exchange offset each other, while soybean PROs are up as a result of stronger futures compared to the change in the Canadian dollar. For durum, the decline in the PRO values is a direct result of the stronger Canadian dollar.

Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the 2016-17 Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool can expect to achieve a final return for 2 CWRS 14.0 in-store port position made up of the March 2017 futures value they lock in plus $8 per tonne.

 

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 75 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat, canola and soybeans.
March 24, 2016