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2016-17 Early Delivery PROs mostly lower in latest outlook

Winnipeg - G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery Pool and Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool. Compared to the last PRO released in mid-January, projected returns for wheat (including Futures Choice), durum, canola and soybeans are significantly lower, while field peas are higher. Projected returns for Futures Choice canola and soybeans remain unchanged.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Early Delivery Pool
Wheat 25-Feb 18-Jan
1 CWRS 14.5 284.00 307.00
1 CWRS 14.0 281.00 304.00
1 CWRS 13.5 278.00 301.00
1 CWRS 13.0 275.00 298.00
1 CWRS 12.5 270.00 293.00
1 CWRS 12.0 265.00 288.00
1 CWRS 11.5 260.00 283.00
2 CWRS 14.5 281.00 304.00
2 CWRS 14.0 278.00 301.00
2 CWRS 13.5 275.00 298.00
2 CWRS 13.0 272.00 295.00
2 CWRS 12.5 267.00 290.00
2 CWRS 12.0 262.00 285.00
2 CWRS 11.5 257.00 280.00
3 CWRS 13.0 261.00 284.00
3 CWRS 12.5 256.00 279.00
3 CWRS 12.0 251.00 274.00
3 CWRS 11.5 246.00 269.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 310.00 330.00
1 CWAD 12.5 307.00 327.00
1 CWAD 11.5 302.00 322.00
1 CWAD 298.00 318.00
2 CWAD 13.0 300.00 320.00
2 CWAD 12.5 297.00 317.00
2 CWAD 11.5 292.00 312.00
2 CWAD 288.00 308.00
3 CWAD 13.0 284.00 304.00
3 CWAD 11.5 280.00 300.00
3 CWAD 278.00 298.00

Canola
1 Canada 500.00 515.00

Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 395.00 385.00

Soybeans
2 Canada Yellow 426.00 450.00

Futures Choice

Early Delivery Pool
25-Feb 18-Jan
Wheat Minneapolis March 2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 16.00 19.00
1 CWRS 14.0 13.00 16.00
1 CWRS 13.5 10.00 13.00
1 CWRS 13.0 7.00 10.00
1 CWRS 12.5 2.00 5.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -3.00 0.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -8.00 -5.00
2 CWRS 14.5 13.00 16.00
2 CWRS 14.0 10.00 13.00
2 CWRS 13.5 7.00 10.00
2 CWRS 13.0 4.00 7.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -1.00 2.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -6.00 -3.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -11.00 -8.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -7.00 -4.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -12.00 -9.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -17.00 -14.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -22.00 -19.00

Canola

ICE March 2017 Basis
1 Canada 20.00 20.00

Soybeans

Chicago March 2017 Basis
2 Canada Yellow -20.00 -20.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2016-17 pools
PROs for 2016-17 are based on the best information available today, with the understanding that the 2016 production season remains ahead and will ultimately determine price direction and levels. In terms of production, early forecasts predict a movement away from cereal crops towards pulse and soybean acres, with the exception of durum given its current premium over spring wheat. Excess global wheat supplies will continue to pressure Canadian prices in 2016-17 unless there is a major development in the marketplace.

The large drops in wheat, durum and soybeans are due in large part to the Canadian dollar strengthening to a projected 73 cents from the 69 cent projection in January. That 6 per cent move is the dominant driver with slight weakness in futures markets in the mix as well.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 73 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat, canola and soybeans.
February 25, 2016