FR
News

2015-16 Winter PROs mostly lower in latest outlook

Winnipeg - G3 today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2015-16 Winter Pool and Futures Choice Winter Pool. Compared to the last PRO released in mid-February, projected returns for wheat (including Futures Choice), durum and canola are all lower, while projected returns for canola Futures Choice remain unchanged.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Winter Pool
Wheat 25-Feb 12-Feb
1 CWRS 14.5 266.00 271.00
1 CWRS 14.0 263.00 268.00
1 CWRS 13.5 260.00 265.00
1 CWRS 13.0 257.00 262.00
1 CWRS 12.5 254.00 259.00
1 CWRS 12.0 251.00 256.00
1 CWRS 11.5 248.00 253.00
2 CWRS 14.5 263.00 268.00
2 CWRS 14.0 260.00 265.00
2 CWRS 13.5 257.00 262.00
2 CWRS 13.0 254.00 259.00
2 CWRS 12.5 251.00 256.00
2 CWRS 12.0 248.00 253.00
2 CWRS 11.5 245.00 250.00
3 CWRS 13.0 242.00 247.00
3 CWRS 12.5 240.00 245.00
3 CWRS 12.0 237.00 242.00
3 CWRS 11.5 235.00 240.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 333.00 340.00
1 CWAD 12.5 333.00 340.00
1 CWAD 11.5 331.00 338.00
1 CWAD 331.00 338.00
2 CWAD 13.0 328.00 335.00
2 CWAD 12.5 327.00 334.00
2 CWAD 11.5 326.00 333.00
2 CWAD 325.00 332.00
3 CWAD 13.0 314.00 321.00
3 CWAD 11.5 312.00 319.00
3 CWAD 311.00 318.00
4 CWAD 297.00 304.00

Canola
1 Canada 490.00 505.00

Futures Choice

Winter Pool
25-Feb 12-Feb
Wheat Minneapolis July 2016 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 13.00 14.00
1 CWRS 14.0 10.00 11.00
1 CWRS 13.5 7.00 8.00
1 CWRS 13.0 4.00 5.00
1 CWRS 12.5 1.00 2.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -2.00 -1.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -5.00 -4.00
2 CWRS 14.5 10.00 11.00
2 CWRS 14.0 7.00 8.00
2 CWRS 13.5 4.00 5.00
2 CWRS 13.0 1.00 2.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -2.00 -1.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -5.00 -4.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -8.00 -7.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -11.00 -10.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -13.00 -12.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -16.00 -15.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -18.00 -17.00

Canola

ICE July 2016 Basis
1 Canola 22.00 22.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2015-16 pools

Wheat 
PRO values for the wheat Winter Pool are down this month due in large part to the Canadian dollar strengthening to a projected 73 cents from 72 cents projected in mid-February. Current Minneapolis wheat futures prices for the March 2016 contract through to the July 2016 contract are trading in the range of US$4.85 to US$5.00 per bushel, which are unchanged compared to the mid-February PRO release.

Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the 2015-16 Futures Choice Winter Pool can expect to achieve a final return for 2 CWRS 14.0 in-store port position made up of the July 2016 futures value they lock in plus $7 per tonne.

Durum
PRO values for the durum Winter Pool are lower this month as a result of the stronger Canadian dollar and continued softening in the durum market. The current foreign exchange is 73 cents, compared to the mid-February release of 72 cents.

Canola
PRO values for the canola Winter Pool are slightly lower this month due to weaker futures. The weaker futures can be attributed to weakness in palm and bean oil futures as well as the stronger Canadian dollar. Current canola futures for the May and July 2016 contracts are trading in the range of $453 to $460 per tonne, which are down $20 per tonne compared to the February 12 release. 

Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the 2015-16 Futures Choice Winter Pool can expect to achieve a final return for 1 Canada Canola in-store port position made up of the July 2016 futures value they lock in plus $22 per tonne.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 73 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
February 25, 2016