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G3 extends 2015-16 Winter Pool sign-up, releases mid-month PRO

Winnipeg – G3 today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2015-16 Winter Pool and Futures Choice Winter Pool. Compared to the last PRO released in January, projected returns for wheat and canola are $6 and $5 per tonne lower, respectively, while projected returns for Nos. 3 and 4 durum are significantly higher. Projected returns for wheat and canola Futures Choice pools are both $1 per tonne lower.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Winter Pool
Wheat 12-Feb 28-Jan
1 CWRS 14.5 271.00 277.00
1 CWRS 14.0 268.00 274.00
1 CWRS 13.5 265.00 271.00
1 CWRS 13.0 262.00 268.00
1 CWRS 12.5 259.00 265.00
1 CWRS 12.0 256.00 262.00
1 CWRS 11.5 253.00 259.00
2 CWRS 14.5 268.00 274.00
2 CWRS 14.0 265.00 271.00
2 CWRS 13.5 262.00 268.00
2 CWRS 13.0 259.00 265.00
2 CWRS 12.5 256.00 262.00
2 CWRS 12.0 253.00 259.00
2 CWRS 11.5 250.00 256.00
3 CWRS 13.0 247.00 253.00
3 CWRS 12.5 245.00 251.00
3 CWRS 12.0 242.00 248.00
3 CWRS 11.5 240.00 246.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 340.00 339.00
1 CWAD 12.5 340.00 337.00
1 CWAD 11.5 338.00 334.00
1 CWAD 338.00 332.00
2 CWAD 13.0 335.00 329.00
2 CWAD 12.5 334.00 328.00
2 CWAD 11.5 333.00 325.00
2 CWAD 332.00 323.00
3 CWAD 13.0 321.00 309.00
3 CWAD 11.5 319.00 306.00
3 CWAD 318.00 304.00
4 CWAD 304.00 284.00

Canola
1 Canada 505.00 510.00

Futures Choice

Winter Pool
12-Feb 28-Jan
Wheat Minneapolis July 2016 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 14.00 15.00
1 CWRS 14.0 11.00 12.00
1 CWRS 13.5 8.00 9.00
1 CWRS 13.0 5.00 6.00
1 CWRS 12.5 2.00 3.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -1.00 0.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -4.00 -3.00
2 CWRS 14.5 11.00 12.00
2 CWRS 14.0 8.00 9.00
2 CWRS 13.5 5.00 6.00
2 CWRS 13.0 2.00 3.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -1.00 0.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -4.00 -3.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -7.00 -6.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -10.00 -9.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -12.00 -11.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -15.00 -14.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -17.00 -16.00

Canola
ICE July 2016 Basis
1 Canola 22.00 23.00

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2015-16 pools

Wheat 
PRO values for the wheat Winter Pool continue to trend lower as a result of weaker futures and the slightly stronger Canadian dollar. Current Minneapolis wheat futures prices for the March 2016 contract through to the July 2016 contract are trading in the range of US$4.85 to US$5.00 per bushel, which is down compared to the January PRO release.

For the Futures Choice Pool, PRO values are only slightly down as a result of the stronger Canadian dollar. Given current PRO assumptions, farmers in the 2015-16 Futures Choice Winter Pool can expect to achieve a final return for 2 CWRS 14.0 in-store port position made up of the July 2016 futures value they lock in plus $8 per tonne.

Durum
PRO values for this pool are significantly higher for Nos. 3 and 4 CWAD compared to the previous PRO release as a result of spread adjustments. Projected returns reflect early sales on the books at somewhat stronger prices.

Canola
Canola pool returns are down somewhat, in line with futures values that have weakened over the past few weeks as a result of slightly larger-than-expected stocks reported.Futures Choice basis projected returns are slightly weaker at $22 per tonne over the July contract.Overall, canola demand remains steady both for export and crushing.

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 72 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat and canola.
February 12, 2016