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2016-17 PROs mixed in latest outlook

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual pools, including Futures Choice Pools. Compared to the last PRO released in May, projected returns for wheat, canola (including Futures Choice), and field peas are all lower for the Early Delivery and Annual pools, while projected returns for Early Delivery durum and soybean pools are higher. Projected returns for durum Annual Pool, soybean Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool and both wheat Futures Choice Pools are unchanged.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Early Delivery Pool Annual Pool
Wheat 23-Jun 26-May 23-Jun 26-May
1 CWRS 14.5 276.00 284.00 274.00 281.00
1 CWRS 14.0 273.00 281.00 271.00 278.00
1 CWRS 13.5 270.00 278.00 268.00 275.00
1 CWRS 13.0 269.00 275.00 265.00 272.00
1 CWRS 12.5 262.00 270.00 260.00 267.00
1 CWRS 12.0 257.00 265.00 255.00 262.00
1 CWRS 11.5 252.00 260.00 250.00 257.00
2 CWRS 14.5 273.00 281.00 271.00 278.00
2 CWRS 14.0 270.00 278.00 268.00 275.00
2 CWRS 13.5 267.00 275.00 265.00 272.00
2 CWRS 13.0 264.00 272.00 262.00 269.00
2 CWRS 12.5 259.00 267.00 257.00 264.00
2 CWRS 12.0 254.00 262.00 252.00 259.00
2 CWRS 11.5 249.00 257.00 247.00 254.00
3 CWRS 13.0 253.00 261.00 251.00 258.00
3 CWRS 12.5 248.00 256.00 246.00 253.00
3 CWRS 12.0 243.00 251.00 241.00 248.00
3 CWRS 11.5 238.00 246.00 236.00 243.00
Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 307.00 305.00 301.00 301.00
1 CWAD 12.5 305.00 303.00 299.00 299.00
1 CWAD 11.5 300.00 298.00 294.00 294.00
1 CWAD 297.00 295.00 291.00 291.00
2 CWAD 13.0 298.00 296.00 292.00 292.00
2 CWAD 12.5 295.00 293.00 289.00 289.00
2 CWAD 11.5 291.00 289.00 285.00 285.00
2 CWAD 287.00 285.00 281.00 281.00
3 CWAD 13.0 282.00 280.00 276.00 276.00
3 CWAD 11.5 281.00 279.00 275.00 275.00
3 CWAD 276.00 274.00 270.00 270.00

Canola
1 Canada 503.00 535.00 505.00 535.00

Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 402.00 405.00 402.00 405.00

Soybeans
2 Canada Yellow 497.00 475.00

Futures Choice
Early Delivery Pool Annual Pool
23-Jun 26-May 23-Jun 26-May
Wheat Minneapolis March 2017 Basis Minneapolis July 2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 14.00 14.00 9.00 9.00
1 CWRS 14.0 11.00 11.00 6.00 6.00
1 CWRS 13.5 8.00 8.00 3.00 3.00
1 CWRS 13.0 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00
1 CWRS 12.5 0.00 0.00 -6.00 -6.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -5.00 -5.00 -11.00 -11.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -10.00 -10.00 -16.00 -16.00
2 CWRS 14.5 11.00 11.00 6.00 6.00
2 CWRS 14.0 8.00 8.00 3.00 3.00
2 CWRS 13.5 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00
2 CWRS 13.0 2.00 2.00 -3.00 -3.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -3.00 -3.00 -9.00 -9.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -8.00 -8.00 -14.00 -14.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -13.00 -13.00 -19.00 -19.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -9.00 -9.00 -14.00 -14.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -14.00 -14.00 -20.00 -20.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -19.00 -19.00 -25.00 -25.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -24.00 -24.00 -30.00 -30.00

Canola
ICE March 2017 Basis ICE July 2017 Basis
1 Canada 10.00 14.00 8.00 12.00

Soybeans
Chicago March 2017 Basis
2 Canada Yellow -25.00 -25.00

 

Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2016-17 pools


PROs for 2016-17 are based on the latest information with the 2016 production season now well underway. At this point, spring-seeded crops are entering the reproductive phase in very good condition. Moisture and temperature conditions across North America have been generally very good for the last month and crops are showing above-trend potential. World wheat production for 2016 is now projected to set a new record based on current prospects.

The most dramatic changes are for the wheat, canola and soybean pools, which are projected at $7-8 per tonne lower for wheat and $30-32 per tonne lower for canola. In the case of soybeans, the futures market has also dropped off sharply over the last week, but remains substantially higher than in May, so the pool return is projected $22 per tonne higher.

In the case of the durum market, the European durum crop is facing significant downgrade concerns as substantial rains were received leading into harvest, which is just getting underway. This has buttressed prices even while conditions in North America have become more promising over the past month.

Since the last PRO release in May, the Canadian dollar has strengthened a penny back to 78 cents US, which was negative to all the pool returns with the exception of canola.

Given current PRO projections, producers in the 2016-17 wheat Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool would anticipate a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position of the March 2017 futures value they lock in plus $8 per tonne. For the wheat Futures Choice Annual Pool, the projection for 1 CWRS 13.5 is the July 2017 futures plus $3 per tonne. 

For the canola Futures Choice Pools, the projected return is the March 2017 futures locked in plus $10 per tonne for the Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool and the July 2017 futures plus $8 per tonne for the Futures Choice Annual Pool at in-store position. 

For the soybean Futures Choice Pools, the projected return is the March 2017 futures locked in less $25 per tonne for the Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool at in-store position. 

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 78 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat, canola and soybeans.
G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual pools, including Futures Choice Pools...
June 23, 2016 Read More

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