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September outlook for 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual Pools

Winnipeg – G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual pools, including Futures Choice Pools. Compared to the last PRO released in August, projected returns for wheat are down slightly, little change to durum, while canola, field peas and soybeans are up. Projected returns for wheat and soybean Futures Choice pools are up, while canola Futures Choice is lower.

G3 PRO (per tonne)
In store Vancouver or Thunder Bay
Early Delivery Pool Annual Pool
Wheat 22-Sep 25-Aug 22-Sep 25-Aug
1 CWRS 14.5 263.00 266.00 264.00 267.00
1 CWRS 14.0 260.00 263.00 261.00 264.00
1 CWRS 13.5 257.00 260.00 258.00 261.00
1 CWRS 13.0 254.00 257.00 255.00 258.00
1 CWRS 12.5 249.00 252.00 250.00 253.00
1 CWRS 12.0 244.00 247.00 245.00 248.00
1 CWRS 11.5 239.00 242.00 240.00 243.00
2 CWRS 14.5 260.00 263.00 261.00 264.00
2 CWRS 14.0 257.00 260.00 258.00 261.00
2 CWRS 13.5 254.00 257.00 255.00 258.00
2 CWRS 13.0 251.00 254.00 252.00 255.00
2 CWRS 12.5 246.00 249.00 247.00 250.00
2 CWRS 12.0 241.00 244.00 242.00 245.00
2 CWRS 11.5 236.00 239.00 237.00 240.00
3 CWRS 13.0 240.00 243.00 241.00 244.00
3 CWRS 12.5 235.00 238.00 236.00 239.00
3 CWRS 12.0 230.00 233.00 231.00 234.00
3 CWRS 11.5 225.00 228.00 226.00 229.00

Durum
1 CWAD 13.0 302.00 302.00 298.00 296.00
1 CWAD 12.5 300.00 300.00 296.00 294.00
1 CWAD 11.5 295.00 295.00 291.00 289.00
1 CWAD 292.00 292.00 288.00 286.00
2 CWAD 13.0 293.00 293.00 289.00 287.00
2 CWAD 12.5 290.00 290.00 286.00 284.00
2 CWAD 11.5 286.00 286.00 282.00 280.00
2 CWAD 282.00 282.00 278.00 276.00
3 CWAD 13.0 277.00 277.00 273.00 271.00
3 CWAD 11.5 276.00 276.00 272.00 270.00
3 CWAD 271.00 271.00 267.00 265.00

Canola
1 Canada 481.00 474.00 483.00 476.00

Field Peas
2 Canada Yellow 297.00 290.00 296.00 288.00

Soybeans
2 Canada Yellow 453.00 451.00

Futures Choice
Early Delivery Pool Annual Pool
22-Sep 25-Aug 22-Sep 25-Aug

Wheat
Minneapolis March 2017 Basis Minneapolis July 2017 Basis
1 CWRS 14.5 16.00 14.00 11.00 9.00
1 CWRS 14.0 13.00 11.00 10.00 6.00
1 CWRS 13.5 10.00 8.00 7.00 3.00
1 CWRS 13.0 7.00 5.00 4.00 0.00
1 CWRS 12.5 2.00 0.00 -2.00 -6.00
1 CWRS 12.0 -3.00 -5.00 -7.00 -11.00
1 CWRS 11.5 -8.00 -10.00 -12.00 -16.00
2 CWRS 14.5 13.00 11.00 10.00 6.00
2 CWRS 14.0 10.00 8.00 7.00 3.00
2 CWRS 13.5 7.00 5.00 4.00 0.00
2 CWRS 13.0 4.00 2.00 1.00 -3.00
2 CWRS 12.5 -1.00 -3.00 -5.00 -9.00
2 CWRS 12.0 -6.00 -8.00 -10.00 -14.00
2 CWRS 11.5 -12.00 -13.00 -15.00 -19.00
3 CWRS 13.0 -7.00 -9.00 -10.00 -14.00
3 CWRS 12.5 -12.00 -14.00 -16.00 -20.00
3 CWRS 12.0 -17.00 -19.00 -21.00 -25.00
3 CWRS 11.5 -22.00 -24.00 -26.00 -30.00

Canola
ICE March 2017 Basis ICE July 2017 Basis
1 Canada 12.00 15.00 11.00 13.00

Soybeans
Chicago March 2017 Basis
2 Canada Yellow -12.00 -16.00


Note: PROs are provided as price indications based on current nearby and forward markets. They are calculated basis track west coast or Thunder Bay ports, net of all projected operating costs, including G3’s pool management fee. Volatile market conditions may affect the PROs significantly. PROs are not price guarantees and should not be confused with initial payments. Farmers should consider entering pool contracts as an excellent risk-management tool that provides a solid return from the entire pooling period.

To calculate pool returns backed off to the farm, farmers should factor in country deductions that they negotiate directly with grain handlers. These deductions may vary at different times of the year.

PRO commentary
2016-17 pools
PROs for 2016-17 are based on the latest information available as the 2016 harvest is now in the home stretch across the Prairies. In general, the harvest results are very close to expectations so markets have mainly moved sideways through the harvest period. Yields are good to very good on most crops. Although harvest weather conditions have not been perfect and have created slight delays, progress has been steady and is on track to be completed very soon.

Compared to August, the wheat pool returns are down $3 per tonne due to lower futures and a slightly stronger Canadian dollar. Durum returns are unchanged to up $2 per tonne, due to slightly stronger prices. Canola returns are up $7 per tonne due to stronger futures values. Pea values are somewhat stronger as well, pushing projected pool returns up $7 and $8 per tonne for the Early Delivery and Annual pools, respectively. Soybean futures pushed higher as well, raising pool returns by $2 per tonne.   

Given current PRO projections, producers in the 2016-17 wheat Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool would anticipate a final return for 1 CWRS 13.5 in-store port position made up of the March 2017 futures value they lock in plus $10 per tonne. For the wheat Futures Choice Annual Pool, the projection for 1 CWRS 13.5 is the July 2017 futures plus $7 per tonne. 

For the canola Futures Choice Pools, the projected return is the March 2017 futures locked in plus $12 per tonne for the Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool and the July 2017 futures plus $11 per tonne for the Futures Choice Annual Pool at in-store position. 

For the soybean Futures Choice Pools, the projected return is the March 2017 futures locked in less $12 per tonne for the Futures Choice Early Delivery Pool at in-store position. 

General pool assumptions:

  • Canadian dollar at 76.5 cents versus the U.S. dollar.
  • Current forward futures structure for wheat, canola and soybeans.
G3 Canada Limited today released updated Pool Return Outlooks (PROs) for the 2016-17 Early Delivery and Annual pools, including Futures Choice Pools. Compared to the last PRO released in August, projected returns for wheat are down slightly, little change to durum, while canola, field peas and soybeans are up. Projected returns for wheat and soybean Futures Choice pools are up, while canola Futures Choice is lower...
September 22, 2016 Read More

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